Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 10:30am, Thursday 19th October

On Saturday, coastal flooding is possible for parts of the south and west coasts of England and Wales. Parts of coastal communities between Dorset and East Sussex and from Vale of Glamorgan to Ceredigion may flood. Land, roads and isolated coastal properties along other parts of the coastlines could also flood and there could be some travel disruption. Large waves along exposed coasts bring a risk to public safety.

Read this forecast in Welsh

Looking ahead

Persistent rain may affect parts of England and Wales during next week and this could lead to some river and surface water flooding impacts in the middle of the week.

River

Heavy rain is likely across parts of north Wales and the north of England on Saturday. Some locally minor river flooding impacts are possible but not expected and so the river flood risk remains VERY LOW for the next five days.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is LOW on Saturday.

On Saturday, local significant coastal flood impacts are possible but not expected along coastlines labelled A on the Specific Areas of Concern Map 1. Local minor coastal flood impacts are probable on Saturday in these areas and also along coastlines labelled B on the Specific Areas of Concern Map 1 and are also possible for coastlines labelled C.

This is due to a deep area of low pressure bringing the potential for gale force winds, large surge and large waves to parts of the south and west coasts of England and Wales, coinciding with spring tides. Land, roads and properties may flood and there may be travel disruption. Spray and wave overtopping along exposed coasts could also lead to public safety concerns.

Local minor coastal flood impacts are possible but not expected for parts of the south coast of England later today (Thursday) due to strong winds bringing some surge and large waves to this coast.

Surface

Heavy rain is likely across parts of north Wales and the north of England on Saturday. Some locally minor surface water flooding impacts are possible but not expected and so the surface water flood risk remains VERY LOW for the next five days.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Saturday 21st October

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Impacts possible around the times of high water.

E Sussex

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Impacts are possible around times of high water on Saturday.

Newport, Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Impacts are probable around times of high water on Saturday morning.

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