Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 10:30am, Thursday 18th January

Local river and surface water flooding is possible on Sunday and Monday across parts of Wales, the Midlands and the north of England due to a combination of heavy rain and snowmelt. Impacts may include isolated property flooding and road flooding, and there may be some travel disruption.

Read this forecast in Welsh

River

The river flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Minor river flooding impacts are possible in Area A on Specific Areas of Concern Map 1 during Sunday and Monday. This is due to a combination of rainfall during Sunday and snowmelt, with elevated river levels then persisting into Monday in places.

Elsewhere across Wales, the north of England and the north Midlands minor river flooding impacts are possible but not expected during this period.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Some localised minor flooding impacts are possible but not expected this (Thursday) afternoon for parts of the Thames Estuary due to a large surge coinciding with high tide.

Surface

The surface water flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Local minor surface water flooding impacts are possible in Area A on Specific Areas of Concern Map 1 during Sunday and Monday. This is due to a combination of rainfall during Sunday and snowmelt across saturated catchments.

Elsewhere across Wales, the north of England and the north Midlands minor surface water flooding impacts are possible but not expected during this period.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Sunday 21st January

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, Gloucestershire, Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire, Worcestershire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, S Yorkshire, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Stoke-on-Trent, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Derby, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Caerphilly, Blackpool, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, W Midlands, Powys, Monmouthshire, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Derbyshire, Denbighshire, Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Conwy, Cheshire, Merseyside, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Impacts from rain and snowmelt combined in the north, mainly rain elsewhere.

Monday 22nd January

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, Gloucestershire, Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire, Worcestershire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, S Yorkshire, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Stoke-on-Trent, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Derby, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Caerphilly, Blackpool, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, W Midlands, Powys, Monmouthshire, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Derbyshire, Denbighshire, Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Conwy, Cheshire, Merseyside, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Impacts from rain and snowmelt combined in the north, mainly rain elsewhere.

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