Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 10:30am, Friday 21st September

Some rivers across Wales, the Midlands and the north of England remain high from recent rainfall. In these areas, local flooding is possible through today. This risk extends into Saturday on the River Ouse in York. On Sunday, local surface water flooding is possible across large parts of England and Wales due to heavy rainfall. River flooding is possible but not expected. Land, roads and some properties may flood and there may be travel disruption. Flooding is possible but not expected along parts of the East Anglia and Kent coasts on Sunday and Monday due to a combination of high tides, large waves and surge. Properties may flood and there may be travel disruption.

Read this forecast in Welsh

River

The river flood risk is VERY LOW.

Ongoing local minor river flooding impacts are possible today in Areas D and E in Specific Areas of Concern Map 3. These may continue through to Saturday in Area E.

Minor river flooding impacts are possible but not expected on Sunday due to the potential for heavy rain moving across England and Wales.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is LOW.

Significant coastal flooding impacts are possible but not expected on Sunday and Monday along coastline A in Specific Areas of Concern Map 1, due to a potential storm surge and large waves combining with spring tides. Minor coastal flooding impacts are possible but not expected along coastline B.

Surface

The surface water flood risk is LOW on Sunday.

Minor surface water flooding impacts are probable on Sunday in Area C of Specific Areas of Concern Map 2 due to the potential for heavy rain moving across England and Wales.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Friday 21st September

York

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing river flooding impacts through York

Vale of Glamorgan, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ceredigion, Caerphilly, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Denbighshire, Pembrokeshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Swansea, Conwy, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing local river flooding impacts

Saturday 22nd September

York

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing river flooding impacts through York

Sunday 23rd September

Norfolk, Lincolnshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood very low, Impact minor

Additional information: Minor flooding from large surge and waves possible but not expected.

Medway, Thurrock, Kent, Essex, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk, Norfolk

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant flooding from large surge and waves possible but not expected.

Merseyside, W Yorkshire, Isle of Anglesey, Lincolnshire, Reading, Cambridgeshire, Rutland, Oxfordshire, Leicestershire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, Surrey, Gtr Manchester, Gloucestershire, Vale of Glamorgan, Staffordshire, N Somerset, Thurrock, Nottinghamshire, Worcestershire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Peterborough, Hampshire, Cardiff, S Yorkshire, Leicester, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Essex, Newport, Swindon, Stoke-on-Trent, NE Lincolnshire, Wiltshire, Gtr London, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Derby, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Luton, Caerphilly, Herefordshire, Gwynedd, W Midlands, Warwickshire, Bracknell Forest, S Gloucestershire, Powys, Suffolk, Milton Keynes, Northamptonshire, Monmouthshire, Norfolk, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Derbyshire, Bristol, Denbighshire, Buckinghamshire, Bath and NE Somerset, Hertfordshire, Pembrokeshire, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Swansea, N Lincolnshire, W Berkshire, Nottingham, Conwy, Slough, Cheshire, Bedfordshire, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Urban areas most at risk.

Monday 24th September

Norfolk, Lincolnshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood very low, Impact minor

Additional information: Minor flooding from large surge and waves possible but not expected.

Medway, Thurrock, Kent, Essex, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk, Norfolk

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Coastal: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant flooding from large surge and waves possible but not expected.

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