Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 10:30am, Monday 25th January

Local flooding is probable from rivers in parts of north-east England today (Monday), extending into tomorrow for the River Derwent in East Yorkshire. Local flooding is also probable for parts the River Severn until Wednesday. This an ongoing response to rain that has already fallen. Land, roads and some properties could flood and there could be travel disruption. Local flooding from groundwater is probable in parts of North Yorkshire over the next five days. Land, roads and some properties could flood and there could be travel disruption. Local flooding from rivers and surface water is possible in Wales and parts of northern and central England on Thursday and Friday, and is also possible but not expected from rivers elsewhere in central and eastern England. Land, roads and some properties may flood and there may be travel disruption.

Read this forecast in Welsh

Looking ahead

There is potential for further river and surface water flooding in parts of England and Wales. River catchments and ground conditions remain sensitive to further prolonged periods of heavy rain which are considered likely during this period.

River

The river flood risk is LOW until Wednesday.

Minor river flooding impacts are probable along parts of the River Severn until Wednesday and some other large river catchments today (Monday). This continues into Tuesday for the River Derwent in East Yorkshire.

Minor river flooding impacts are possible across Wales and parts of the north of England, and possible but not expected across central and eastern parts of England on Thursday and Friday due to further rain on sensitive catchments.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Surface

The surface water flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Minor surface water flooding impacts are possible across Wales and parts of the north of England on Thursday and Friday due to the potential for heavy rain on saturated ground.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is LOW for at least the next five days.

Minor groundwater flooding is probable in North Yorkshire in the Malton, Norton and Old Malton area throughout the next five days. Groundwater levels are also high elsewhere, particularly in parts of the south and east of England.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Monday 25th January

Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Risk continuing into Tuesday for the River Derwent in East Yorkshire only.

N Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Groundwater flooding probable in the Malton, Norton and Old Malton area.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing impacts for River Severn until Wednesday.

Tuesday 26th January

E Riding of Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

N Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Groundwater flooding probable in the Malton, Norton and Old Malton area.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing impacts for River Severn until Wednesday.

Wednesday 27th January

N Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Groundwater flooding probable in the Malton, Norton and Old Malton area.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing impacts for River Severn until Wednesday.

Thursday 28th January

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Staffordshire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Cardiff, S Yorkshire, Northumberland, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Newport, Stoke-on-Trent, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Caerphilly, Blackpool, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys, Durham, Monmouthshire, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Darlington, Derbyshire, Denbighshire, Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen, Pembrokeshire, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Swansea, Conwy, Cheshire, Merseyside, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Further rainfall on sensitive catchments Thursday and Friday.

N Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Groundwater flooding probable in the Malton, Norton and Old Malton area.

Friday 29th January

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Staffordshire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Cardiff, S Yorkshire, Northumberland, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Newport, Stoke-on-Trent, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Caerphilly, Blackpool, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys, Durham, Monmouthshire, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Darlington, Derbyshire, Denbighshire, Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen, Pembrokeshire, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Swansea, Conwy, Cheshire, Merseyside, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Further rainfall on sensitive catchments Thursday and Friday.

N Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Groundwater flooding probable in the Malton, Norton and Old Malton area.

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