Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 3:00pm, Tuesday 18th February

Ongoing river flooding is expected in Monmouthshire and the Midlands along the Severn today (Tuesday) and tomorrow. Properties are flooded and there will be ongoing local travel disruption. Flooding is also possible but not expected in parts of Yorkshire and other parts of the Midlands along the Trent through till Wednesday. New flooding is possible over parts of Wales, the west of the Midlands and the north-west of England on Wednesday and Thursday. From late Friday and into Saturday new flooding is possible over parts of the north of England. River flooding may also continue in places through much of the week on larger, slower responding rivers across England and Wales such as the Yorkshire Ouse, River Severn, River Avon (Gloucestershire), River Dee and Thames. Land, roads and some properties will flood and there will be travel disruption.

Read this forecast in Welsh

Looking ahead

Further heavy rain is possible in this period. This may fall on sensitive catchments that are currently flooded leading to a risk of further flooding impacts.

River

The overall river flood risk is MEDIUM.

Significant flooding impacts are expected on the River Severn and lower River Wye today (Tuesday) and tomorrow (Wednesday). Significant flooding impacts are possible but not expected in parts of Yorkshire and the Midlands today and into Wednesday and also along the lower reaches of the River Avon until Saturday. Ongoing minor flooding impacts are probable in places through much of the week.

Further significant river flooding impacts are possible across Wales, parts of the Midlands and parts of the north-west of England later on Wednesday into Thursday. Minor river flooding impacts are also possible more widely across these areas. This is from heavy rain falling on already saturated river catchments.

New significant river flooding impacts are possible but not expected over parts of the north-east of England from late Friday and on Saturday. More widely, minor river flooding impacts are expected across other parts of the north of England and over the north of Wales from late Friday and into Saturday.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Surface

The overall surface water flood risk is LOW.

Further significant surface water impacts are possible across Wales and possible but not expected for parts of northern England later on Wednesday into Thursday. Minor surface water impacts are also possible more widely across these areas. This is from heavy rain falling on saturated ground.

New significant surface water flooding impacts are possible but not expected over parts of the north-east of England from late Friday and on Saturday. More widely, minor surface water flooding impacts are expected across other parts of the north of England and over Wales from late Friday and into Saturday.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is LOW for the next five days.

Groundwater levels are rising or remain high in parts of Hampshire, Dorset, Wiltshire, North Lincolnshire, East Sussex, West Sussex and Brighton and Hove. Minor impacts are now expected in Dorset and Wiltshire and are possible in Hampshire and East & West Sussex.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Tuesday 18th February

Hampshire, Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Bournemouth, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater and river levels in Iford (Bournemouth) on Tuesday only.

Surrey, Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, Slough, Reading, Oxfordshire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing river flooding River Dee on Tuesday only, elsewhere until Thursday.

Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Nottingham, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Flooding impacts possible along slow-responding rivers.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Shropshire, Herefordshire, Telford and Wrekin

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Flooding impacts in Worcestershire & Gloucestershire only on Wed.

Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: On-going flooding impacts on the lower Wye on Tue & Wed.

Wednesday 19th February

Hampshire, Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, Gloucestershire, Vale of Glamorgan, E Riding of Yorkshire, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Cardiff, S Yorkshire, Northumberland, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Caerphilly, Blackpool, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys, Durham, Monmouthshire, York, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Derbyshire, Denbighshire, Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen, Pembrokeshire, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Swansea, Conwy, Cheshire, Merseyside, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Rain falling on very responsive and saturated catchments.

Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Potential for new flood impacts from heavy rain later Wed to Thu.

Vale of Glamorgan, Carmarthenshire, Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Caerphilly, Powys, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Swansea, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Rain falling on responsive catchments in Wales..

Surrey, Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, Slough, Reading, Oxfordshire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing flooding impacts on the River Thames until Thursday.

Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Nottingham, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Flooding impacts possible along slow-responding rivers.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Shropshire, Herefordshire, Telford and Wrekin

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing river flooding impacts on the Severn catchment

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing flooding impacts continuing along the Severn and Avon.

Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: On-going flooding impacts on the lower Wye on Tue & Wed.

Thursday 20th February

Hampshire, Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, Gloucestershire, Vale of Glamorgan, E Riding of Yorkshire, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Cardiff, S Yorkshire, Northumberland, Blaenau Gwent, Wrexham, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Caerphilly, Blackpool, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys, Durham, Monmouthshire, York, Warrington, Neath Port Talbot, Derbyshire, Denbighshire, Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen, Pembrokeshire, Telford and Wrekin, Merthyr Tydfil, Halton, Bridgend, Swansea, Conwy, Cheshire, Merseyside, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Rain falling on very responsive and saturated catchments.

Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Potential for new flood impacts from heavy rain later Wed to Thu.

Vale of Glamorgan, Carmarthenshire, Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Caerphilly, Powys, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Swansea, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Rain falling on responsive catchments in Wales..

Surrey, Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, Slough, Reading, Oxfordshire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing flooding impacts on the River Thames until Thursday.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Shropshire, Herefordshire, Telford and Wrekin

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing river flooding impacts on the Severn catchment

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing flooding impacts continuing along the Severn and Avon.

Friday 21st February

W Yorkshire, S Yorkshire, N Yorkshire, York

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Heavy rain Fri to Sat leading to renewed flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, E Riding of Yorkshire, S Yorkshire, Northumberland, N Yorkshire, Durham, York, Darlington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: New flooding from late Fri to Sat from heavy rain through Fri.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing flooding impacts continuing along the Severn and Avon.

Saturday 22nd February

W Yorkshire, S Yorkshire, N Yorkshire, York

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Heavy rain Fri to Sat leading to renewed flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised groundwater flooding impacts.

Gtr Manchester, W Yorkshire, E Riding of Yorkshire, S Yorkshire, Northumberland, N Yorkshire, Durham, York, Darlington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Cumbria, Blackburn with Darwen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: New flooding from late Fri to Sat from heavy rain through Fri.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing flooding impacts continuing along the Severn and Avon.

RiverLevels.uk is an independent website. It is not associated with the Environment Agency or any other supplier of river level information.

RiverLevels.uk is a Good Stuff website.