River Levels

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Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 10:30am, Saturday 14th February

England

Ongoing impacts from groundwater are probable for parts of the South of England through the next five days. Ongoing flooding impacts are also probable from rivers across Somerset and Wiltshire. Ongoing local river flooding is possible for parts of the Midlands today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday). Properties could flood and there could be travel disruption. Local surface water and river flooding impacts are possible more widely in parts of England and Wales on Sunday, with impacts possible but not expected later on Tuesday and through Wednesday. Land, roads and properties could flood and there could be travel disruption.

Wales

Local surface water and river flooding impacts are possible across much of Wales on Sunday, and possible but not expected later on Tuesday and through Wednesday. Land, roads and properties may flood and there may be travel disruption.

Read this forecast in Welsh

Looking ahead

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue with further low pressure systems affecting the UK. Areas that have seen the most rainfall recently remain at risk of seeing further heavy rain during this period. This could lead to significant inland flooding impacts at times.

Flooding Source Risks

River

The river flood risk is MEDIUM on Saturday.

Significant river flooding impacts are probable in the Salisbury area on Saturday, with ongoing minor impacts possible thereafter as levels continue to decrease. Significant river flooding impacts remain possible in the ongoing flooding on the Somerset Levels for the next five days.

Minor river flooding impacts are possible today in parts of the Midlands and more widely in the Midlands, the South of England and Wales on Sunday. See Specific Areas of Concern Maps.

Minor river flooding impacts are possible but not expected on Tuesday and Wednesday across parts of England and Wales.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Surface

The surface water flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Minor surface water flooding impacts are possible across parts of the Midlands, the South of England and Wales, and possible but not expected more widely on Sunday. Minor impacts are also possible but not expected more widely across parts of England and Wales on Tuesday and Wednesday. See Specific Areas of Concern Maps.

Impacts could include localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses/catchments, drains, channels and flooding from overland flow.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is MEDIUM for the next five days.

Significant groundwater flooding impacts are probable in parts of Dorset and Wiltshire, with minor impacts probable for parts of Hampshire and West Sussex for the next five days.

Minor groundwater flooding impacts are also possible in Kent and East Sussex due to steadily rising levels. See Specific Areas of Concern Maps.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Saturday 14th February

Kent

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Kent and East Sussex.

Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact significant

Additional information: High river levels in the Salisbury area. Reducing from Sunday.

Nottingham, Leicester, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: River levels remain high through Saturday and Sunday.

Wiltshire, W Sussex, Hampshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex.

Somerset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels.

Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact significant

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Dorset and Wiltshire.

Sunday 15th February

Kent

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Kent and East Sussex.

Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High river levels in the Salisbury area decrease to low likelihood on Tuesday

Nottingham, Leicester, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: River levels remain high through Saturday and Sunday.

Cardiff, Newport, Monmouthshire, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot, Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Wrexham, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Conwy, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Isle of Wight, Southampton, Portsmouth, Brighton and Hove, Wokingham, Windsor and Maidenhead, Reading, W Berkshire, Bracknell Forest, Swindon, Poole, Bournemouth, Torbay, Plymouth, S Gloucestershire, N Somerset, Bristol, Bath and NE Somerset, Telford and Wrekin, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Wiltshire, W Sussex, Warwickshire, Surrey, Staffordshire, Somerset, Shropshire, Oxfordshire, Kent, Hampshire, Gloucestershire, E Sussex, Dorset, Devon, Cornwall & Isles of Scilly, Cheshire, Gtr London, W Midlands

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: A risk of inland flooding impacts from persistent rain followed by heavy showers.

Wiltshire, W Sussex, Hampshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex.

Somerset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels.

Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact significant

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Dorset and Wiltshire.

Monday 16th February

Kent

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Kent and East Sussex.

Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High river levels in the Salisbury area decrease to low likelihood on Tuesday

Wiltshire, W Sussex, Hampshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex.

Somerset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels.

Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact significant

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Dorset and Wiltshire.

Tuesday 17th February

Kent

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Kent and East Sussex.

Wiltshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High river levels in the Salisbury area continue to decrease.

Wiltshire, W Sussex, Hampshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex.

Somerset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels.

Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact significant

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Dorset and Wiltshire.

Wednesday 18th February

Kent

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Kent and East Sussex.

Wiltshire, W Sussex, Hampshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex.

Somerset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels.

Wiltshire, Dorset

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • Ground: Likelihood medium, Impact significant

Additional information: High groundwater levels in Dorset and Wiltshire.

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