Five Day Flood Risk Forecast

Forecast issued by the Met Office at 3:00pm, Wednesday 13th November

River flooding is expected to continue in the Lower River Don washland area of South Yorkshire through to at least Sunday, where properties will continue to flood and there will be continued travel disruption. Ongoing river flooding is also expected to continue in parts of Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire today (Wednesday) as a result of rain that has already fallen. From this evening and on Thursday, heavy rain will move across much of England and Wales. Across parts of north and east England, including south Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, this could exacerbate flooding impacts on Thursday and into Friday. The south of England and Wales could also see flooding from rivers and surface water from tonight (Wednesday) and on Thursday. Land, roads and properties could flood and travel disruption is possible. Local flooding is also possible across other parts of England and Wales on Thursday and across the far south-east and east of England later Friday and over the weekend. Ongoing local river flooding may also continue in parts of South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Gloucestershire, Worcestershire and Oxfordshire over the weekend. Land, roads and some properties may flood and there may be travel disruption.

Read this forecast in Welsh

Looking ahead

Successive bands of rain and showers next week may lead to further significant inland flooding impacts if they fall over saturated catchments.

River

The overall river flood risk is MEDIUM.

Ongoing significant impacts are expected in South Yorkshire around the Lower River Don throughout this period. On-going minor impacts from river flooding continue in Notts and Lincs today. Significant impacts from river flooding are possible from Thursday to Sunday in other parts of South Yorkshire and Lincolnshire and in parts of the north and east Midlands on Thursday into Friday. These areas are very responsive and forecast rain may exacerbate current issues.

Significant impacts from river flooding are possible but not expected over south-east Wales and much of the south of England on Thursday as prolonged rain is forecast. River flooding impacts could continue around the Oxfordshire Thames through Friday into Saturday, and in Worcestershire & Gloucestershire from Friday to Sunday.

Minor river flooding impacts are possible over the south-west of England and Wales later on today (Wednesday) as rain moves across from the west. Minor river flooding impacts are also possible more widely across England and central parts of Wales on Thursday.

Minor river flooding is possible on Saturday and Sunday over parts of eastern and south-eastern England in response to further heavy rain and frequent showers.

Coastal

The coastal/tidal flood risk is VERY LOW despite strong winds and large waves leading to isolated instances of wind-blown spray and wave overtopping at times.

Surface

The surface water flood risk is LOW for the next five days.

Significant impacts from surface water flooding are possible on Thursday and Friday in South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and parts of the north and east Midlands. The ground is saturated and forecast rain may exacerbate ongoing flooding. Significant impacts from surface water flooding are also possible but not expected over south-east Wales and much of the south of England on Wednesday night through Thursday as prolonged rain is forecast.

Minor surface water flooding impacts are probable over parts of the south-west of England and Wales later today (Wednesday) and are also possible across central parts of Wales and much of the rest of England on Thursday.

Minor surface water flooding is possible on Saturday over parts of eastern and south-eastern England in response to further heavy rain and frequent showers.

Groundwater

The groundwater flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

Minor groundwater flooding impacts are possible but not expected in Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire during the next five days.

Daily Risk Forecast Maps

Areas Potentially Affected

Wednesday 13th November

Gloucestershire, Bournemouth, Vale of Glamorgan, N Somerset, Carmarthenshire, Hampshire, Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Newport, Wiltshire, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ceredigion, Caerphilly, S Gloucestershire, Devon, Powys, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Bristol, Poole, Isle of Wight, Bath and NE Somerset, Pembrokeshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Swansea, Dorset, Somerset, Torfaen

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood medium, Impact minor

Additional information: Local flood impacts this afternoon into Wednesday night.

Nottinghamshire, NE Lincolnshire, N Lincolnshire, Lincolnshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact minor

Additional information: Ongoing river flooding impacts, including rivers Trent and Witham on Wednesday.

S Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant impacts continue in Lower River Don washlands at least to Sunday.

Thursday 14th November

W Yorkshire, E Riding of Yorkshire, Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire, Worcestershire, Peterborough, Kingston upon Hull, S Yorkshire, Leicester, Essex, Stoke-on-Trent, NE Lincolnshire, Derby, Ceredigion, Shropshire, Luton, Herefordshire, N Yorkshire, Gwynedd, W Midlands, Warwickshire, Powys, Suffolk, Milton Keynes, Northamptonshire, Norfolk, York, Derbyshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, Telford and Wrekin, N Lincolnshire, Nottingham, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, Rutland, Bedfordshire, Oxfordshire, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Localised minor flood impacts on Thursday.

Surrey, Gloucestershire, Medway, Vale of Glamorgan, N Somerset, Thurrock, Kent, Worcestershire, Hampshire, Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Essex, Newport, Swindon, Wiltshire, Gtr London, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Caerphilly, Southend-on-Sea, Herefordshire, Warwickshire, Bracknell Forest, S Gloucestershire, Brighton and Hove, Powys, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Bristol, Isle of Wight, Buckinghamshire, Bath and NE Somerset, Hertfordshire, Southampton, Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Swansea, W Sussex, W Berkshire, E Sussex, Slough, Reading, Bedfordshire, Oxfordshire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Somerset, Torfaen, Wokingham, Portsmouth

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: River and surface water flooding on Thursday from persistent rain and showers.

Nottinghamshire, S Yorkshire, NE Lincolnshire, Derby, Derbyshire, N Lincolnshire, Nottingham, Lincolnshire, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Impacts due to further rain and recent flooding on Thursday and Friday.

S Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant impacts continue in Lower River Don washlands at least to Sunday.

Friday 15th November

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing impacts possible for lower River Severn & River Avon Friday to Sunday.

Medway, Thurrock, Kent, Peterborough, Essex, NE Lincolnshire, Gtr London, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk, Norfolk, N Lincolnshire, E Sussex, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Possible impacts from late Friday into Sunday.

Oxfordshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Impacts on Oxfordshire Thames could continue to Saturday.

Nottinghamshire, S Yorkshire, NE Lincolnshire, Derby, Derbyshire, N Lincolnshire, Nottingham, Lincolnshire, Leicestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact significant
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact significant

Additional information: Impacts due to further rain and recent flooding on Thursday and Friday.

S Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant impacts continue in Lower River Don washlands at least to Sunday.

Saturday 16th November

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing impacts possible for lower River Severn & River Avon Friday to Sunday.

Medway, Thurrock, Kent, Peterborough, Essex, NE Lincolnshire, Gtr London, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk, Norfolk, N Lincolnshire, E Sussex, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Possible impacts from late Friday into Sunday.

S Yorkshire, NE Lincolnshire, N Lincolnshire, Lincolnshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: River impacts possibly continuing over the weekend.

Oxfordshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Impacts on Oxfordshire Thames could continue to Saturday.

S Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant impacts continue in Lower River Don washlands at least to Sunday.

Sunday 17th November

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: Ongoing impacts possible for lower River Severn & River Avon Friday to Sunday.

Medway, Thurrock, Kent, Peterborough, Essex, NE Lincolnshire, Gtr London, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk, Norfolk, N Lincolnshire, E Sussex, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood low, Impact minor
  • Surface: Likelihood low, Impact minor

Additional information: Possible impacts from late Friday into Sunday.

S Yorkshire, NE Lincolnshire, N Lincolnshire, Lincolnshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood very low, Impact significant

Additional information: River impacts possibly continuing over the weekend.

S Yorkshire

Source and risk of potential flooding

  • River: Likelihood high, Impact significant

Additional information: Significant impacts continue in Lower River Don washlands at least to Sunday.

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